![2008 hurricane track 2008 hurricane track](http://ccimgs.s3.amazonaws.com/Ike_2008_track.jpg)
Current research shows a correlation between the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and the changing climate. The Gulf Coast from the Mississippi Delta through the Texas coast is shown in this satellite image from NASA Terra spacecraft, and the predicted storm track for Hurricane Rita acquired in February, 2000.Įxamining Hurricane Track Length and Stage Duration Since 1980Įach year, tropical systems impact thousands of people worldwide. Hurricane Rita TrackRadar Image with Topographic Overlay Examines the problems of detecting, tracking, and describing tropical cyclones, and the difficulties which continue to complicate the matter of warning and evacuating coastal residents. Hurricane Prediction: Progress and Problem AreasĮRIC Educational Resources Information Centerĭescribes progress made in recent decades in predicting the track and landfall of hurricanes. The cones proposed here shed new light on known track forecast cones as they link them directly to the statistics of these deviations.
![2008 hurricane track 2008 hurricane track](https://c2.staticflickr.com/4/3173/2850368559_410defc13a_z.jpg)
The corridors include the future trajectory up to at least 50 h before landfall. Examples of this scheme are implemented for hurricane Ike and hurricane Jimena. By using the statistical properties of these deviations, we propose a simple method to predict possible corridors for the future trajectory of a cyclone. Prediction schemes usually render this uncertainty by showing track forecast cones representing the most probable region for the location of a cyclone during a period of time. Trajectories of tropical cyclones may show large deviations from predicted tracks leading to uncertainty as to their landfall location for example. Hurricane track forecast cones from fluctuations Although the barotropic track forecast was unable to capture the hurricane's tight cycloidal looping maneuver, the subsequent northwesterly movement was accurately forecasted as was the location and timing of landfall near Mobile Bay. Approximately 200 km west of Tampa Bay, Elena executed a dramatic recurvature that ultimately changed its course toward the northwest. The 72-h prediction of Elena's track was made as the storm moved toward Florida's west coast. This was a speed-up of 3.7 when compared to the one-processor version. The prediction took 30 sec on the 8-processor Alliant FX/8 computer. A 72-h track prediction was made using incremental time steps of 16 min on a network of 3000 grid points nominally separated by 100 km. We demonstrate that direct parallel methods based on accelerated block cyclic reduction (BCR) significantly reduce the computational time required to solve the elliptic equations germane to this decomposition and forecast problem. Another set is associated with recovery of the streamfunction from the forecasted vorticity. One set of equations is associated with the decomposition of the wind into irrotational and nondivergent components - this determines the initial nondivergent state. In this particular application, solutions to systems of elliptic equations are the essence of the computational mechanics. We apply this model to the track forecasting of hurricane Elena (1985). The barotropic model is used to explore the advantages of parallel processing in deterministic forecasting.
![2008 hurricane track 2008 hurricane track](https://www2.atmos.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/08/ike/Ike_v2.png)
An experiment in hurricane track prediction using parallel computing methods